I’ve been coming across a lot of different lists of social media predictions for the coming year. One of the things that jumps off the screen is how remarkably similar they are, with messages like “focus on people, not consumers”, “it’s all about conversations”, convergence / cross-platform offerings, etc. I initially nodded along with most of them, but the more that I think about them, the more I not only wonder whether some are quite off base, but also whether many of them aren’t even predictions at all. Instead, they are statements about what has already occurred and/or the current conventional wisdom.
In turn, I wanted to start questioning a few of them. Not in a way to say that they are wrong per se – I’m in no way fully convinced that they are – but to hopefully open up a deeper discussion of what the future might really hold. So today I’ll start with one that really caught my eye recently:
1. It’s About People. I saw this most recently on an excellent post on readwriteweb, but it’s a message I’ve seen come up often – “we’re moving away from ‘users’, ‘customers’, and ’shoppers’. People now seek meaningful connection, self-expression, and a relevant and receptive community.”
So this is a prime example of one I was initially nodding along to, and then stopped. The reason I stopped is that I think the notion that social media is “about people” is not a statement about the future, but a statement about the past/ present. If you look at the major social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, etc., they were built with a focus on people making meaningful connections, and self-expression, with a receptive community. They certainly haven’t been customer / shopper focused. So how is that a change in 2009? Haven’t we been there, done that, to some extent?
I would argue the more interesting question about the future is slightly different – as social media continues to evolve will the focus remain on people, or will it shift to a model that treats them as users, customers, shoppers, friends, etc. in different contexts?
I believe the gut reaction here from many is that it will/ should remain “on people”, and companies that try to do differently will fail and/or be punished in someway. But when you look at the social media landscape, it’s important to remember that this “focus on the people” hasn’t proven too lucrative yet – Facebook and Twitter again as examples of companies struggling to find the proper business model to support their people-focused offerings. I believe at some point they will figure it out, but in relation to above it will be tied to a model that allows companies (and other entities) engage with customers, shoppers, etc. in a contextually relevant way. Being just “about the people”, as of yet, doesn’t really pay.
So in some ways, I guess I’m arguing that the future may involve taking a step back, and focusing on the business realities these platforms face. How can they maintain a platform that continues to function “for the people”, while allowing them to profit by having certain people engaged as customers, shoppers, etc.? Or will this whole space end up being a big, open, collaborative platform with no distinct owner(s) making serious money?
