With pretty much everyone now agreeing we are at least in a recession, investors have been looking back in history to identify the types of investments that do well in tough times. Movie theatres almost always rise to the top – and I can personally say I’m betting on this pattern repeating itself again. However, I’m not entirely sure by any means, as I continue to wonder how large of an impact the Web 2.0 will have on how people entertain themselves.
What got me thinking about this again was this NY Times article about storefronts in the virtual worlds bringing in real money. It basically focuses on how people that can’t afford to buy a lot of real stuff might be shifting their time and expenditures online, opting for a selection of micro-purchases (think: $2 for Justin Timberlake’s signature Fedora for your virtual character, or perhaps just a little eBay auction action).
It makes for an interesting contrast. The whole argument for movies is that it’s been a relatively affordable means of escape from your daily life, and it remains one of the luxuries people will cough up for when times are tough. But virtual worlds are another place that people go to escape, they range from free to very affordable, and importantly the entertainment they provide matches up very well with the Net Gen norms of freedom, customization, etc… while movies remain a prime example of broadcast media.
So what do you think is going to happen? As noted, I’m betting on movie theatres (particularly in Canada, where a fairly monopolistic industry structure helps out) generating just fine returns over the coming years. However, should expectations be tempered as select individuals opt to escape to (at the extreme end) their virtual identities decked out in $1.50 pompadours? Again, I don’t want people to get too focused on this particular type of purchase (i.e. “I’m not one of those weirdos!”), but rather just about any type of “escape” and “entertainment” behavior that might involve drifting into cyberspace rather than off to the theatre… how much have times changed?
